In this report for a gas supplier and CCGT operator, we conclude that the combination of localised pipeline capacity constraints and insufficient high deliverability, working gas storage will exacerbate gas supply problems during peak periods from 2010 to 2012 and perhaps longer.
Our emPower model of electricity (hourly) and gas (daily) load and flows over the next five years indicates that the system will have difficulty satisfying peak demand at several offtake points in the north and central regions for 30-35 days under normal weather conditions. While the Medgas pipeline will significantly increase gas supply into Spain (8 bcm per year), pipeline constraints will limit flows to some regions such as the Asturias. Moreover, during prolonged periods of cold weather / peak demand in power and gas, notably in January/February, working gas volumes from high deliverability LNG storage will be insufficient to meet high incremental demand. New investment in pipeline capacity expected by 2012 will ease some of the pipeline constraints, but new multi-cycle, high volume gas storage facilities (e.g. salt cavern storage) are required to balance load during peak periods.